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Nasdaq 100 Enters Correction: How AI Capex Went From Thesis to Fear in a Week
Tesla fell 14.5% and Alphabet 7.1% on July 23 after raising their capex forecasts. Six days later, the Nasdaq 100 closed in technical correction, 11% below its June high. We trace how the same capex that sustained the rally became the reason for the drop.
Read article →Fed "Hawkish Hold" With Three Dissents: The First Split Like This Since 2016
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, but three FOMC members voted to hike — the first time since September 2016 the committee has shown this kind of split. The Dow fell more than 1,100 points. We recap the decision, Microsoft, Meta and Apple results, and what it means for September.
Read article →Microsoft Jumps Over 15% in a Day: The Counterexample to AI Capex Fear
One day after the Nasdaq 100 closed in correction over doubts on AI capex returns, Microsoft jumped more than 15% in a single session. Azure grew 43%, capex came in below expectations, and free cash flow crushed forecasts. We analyze what changed and what it says about the rest of the sector.
Read article →Banks, CPI and Warsh: What Happened in the Most Intense 48 Hours of the Quarter
CPI dropped 0.4% month-over-month and annual inflation fell to 3.5%, the largest dovish surprise of the year. All five major banks beat consensus but with opposite reactions. Warsh warned it is "not mission accomplished". And this morning, ASML raised annual guidance. Full recap.
Read article →Week of July 14-18: Banks, CPI, ASML, Netflix and the Five Dates That Move the Market
Five of the largest US banks report on the same day the June CPI is released. Warsh testifies before Congress. ASML, TSMC and Netflix mid-week. It is the heaviest week of the entire quarter. We cover day by day what to watch and what each scenario implies.
Read article →July 28-29 FOMC Meeting: What to Expect After CPI 4.2% and the Warsh Message
The Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29 with inflation at 4.2% year-over-year — the highest since April 2023 — and Chair Kevin Warsh warning that it remains "too high". We review the three scenarios the market is pricing in and their impact on equities, gold and bonds.
Read article →Tesla Delivered 480,000 Cars and the Stock Fell 7.49%: Why the Market Reacted That Way
Tesla reported 480,126 deliveries in Q2 2026, well above the 406,024 expected by analysts. Yet the stock fell 7.49% at the close, its biggest daily drop in a year. We analyze why the market punished a print that beat expectations on the surface.
Read article →Q2 2026 Earnings Season: Calendar, Expectations and the Market's Five Questions
Q2 2026 earnings season kicks off the week of July 14 with PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines and the major banks. Financial sector growth is expected at 12.5% and tech has been revised up. We cover the full calendar, the numbers and the five key questions.
Read article →JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo: Guide to Bank Earnings on July 14-15
The four largest US banks open earnings season on July 14 and 15. The financial sector expects EPS growth of 12.5% and revenue growth of 8.1%. What to watch in NIM, credit quality, commercial real estate and trading.
Read article →Trump's 10% Tariffs Expire on July 24: Three Scenarios for Your Portfolio
The global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 expires on July 24, 2026 after 150 days in effect. The Trump administration has threatened to raise it to 15%. We cover the three possible scenarios and which S&P 500 sectors are most exposed.
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