JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo: Guide to Bank Earnings on July 14-15
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Data and estimates as of July 6, 2026.
The four largest US banks report in two consecutive sessions: JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Tuesday July 14 before market; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday July 15. The reaction will set the tone for the rest of the season.
Consensus expectations by bank
| Bank | Date | EPS e | Revenue e | Current price | Median PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (JPM) | Jul 14 | $5.14 | $44.3B | $278.5 | $310 |
| Wells Fargo (WFC) | Jul 14 | $1.42 | $21.1B | $77.8 | $88 |
| Citigroup (C) | Jul 14 | $1.68 | $20.9B | $88.2 | $99 |
| BlackRock (BLK) | Jul 14 | $11.20 | $5.4B | $1,045 | $1,180 |
| Bank of America (BAC) | Jul 15 | $0.88 | $27.4B | $47.3 | $54 |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | Jul 15 | $2.08 | $15.6B | $142.4 | $155 |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | Jul 15 | $10.45 | $13.8B | $602.1 | $680 |
Prices as of July 3 close. Median price targets from Refinitiv. Average upside to target for the group is +11.4%.
The four key metrics to read
1. Net Interest Margin (NIM)
NIM is the spread between what the bank earns lending and what it pays for deposits. With the Fed on hold and a stable rate curve, consensus expects NIM to hold around 2.7-2.9%. Additional compression would hit the most predictable part of earnings.
JPMorgan and Bank of America are the most important reads for retail exposure. Wells Fargo, after years of regulatory restrictions, would get a positive if Powell were to lift the balance sheet cap.
2. Provisions for credit losses
The provision is what banks set aside in advance to cover loans that might go bad. An increase vs Q1 would be the clearest signal of credit cycle deterioration. Focus: credit cards (consumer weakened by soft jobs print), auto loans and commercial real estate.
3. Commercial real estate exposure
Regional banks are the most exposed to post-pandemic office. The big four have limited balance sheet exposure as a percentage, but earnings call commentary sets the sector tone. Any signal of new losses would fuel doubts about mid-sized banks.
4. Trading and investment banking
M&A and IPO activity has recovered in 2026 after two weak years. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the biggest beneficiaries if commentary confirms a healthy H2 pipeline. JPMorgan adds via its markets division.
Three sector reaction scenarios
Positive case
JPM and BAC beat with flat NIM and no provision increase. GS and MS confirm M&A pipeline. Sector rallies 3-5% and drags the KBW Bank Index (BKX). Positive reaction from regional banks.
Neutral case
Moderate beats, NIM compressed 5-10 bps, provisions stable. Individual bank reactions. Sector range +/-1%.
Negative case
Negative surprise on provisions or worrying commentary on commercial real estate. Sector drops 4-6%. Rebounds in gold and bonds as safe haven. Strong contagion to regionals.
Five questions for the earnings calls
- 1.What is NIM sensitivity to a surprise 25 basis point cut in September?
- 2.What percentage of the commercial real estate portfolio matures in 2026-2027 and average LTV?
- 3.How is the 30-day delinquency rate evolving on credit cards?
- 4.What is the guidance for commercial loan growth for H2?
- 5.How much will go to buybacks in H2 vs H1?
Context: the financial sector in 2026
The S&P Financial Sector ETF (XLF) is up +12.4% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+9.6%). The price/tangible book ratio for the big four sits at 1.7x, slightly above the 1.5x historical median. Sector consensus expects +12.5% EPS and +8.1% revenue in Q2.
The 2-10 year curve is at +38 basis points, positively sloped but modest. Further steepening would directly favor bank margins in Q3.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which bank is the best cycle reference?
JPMorgan for its combination of retail, corporate, trading and investment banking. Its commentary on credit quality and loan demand typically sets the sector read.
How does a rate cut affect banks?
Mixed effect. Reduces NIM (negative) but usually steepens the curve (positive) and stimulates credit demand (positive). Historically, the first cuts of a cycle are bullish for banks if the economy avoids recession.
Where can I see updated diagnostic per bank?
At stocksanalyzer.app/analyze by entering the ticker: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, MS, GS, BLK. The diagnostic includes Health Score, AI signal, Monte Carlo, RSI and consensus.
Reference sources: Zacks Earnings Preview, FDIC (fdic.gov), Federal Reserve H.8 Report, Refinitiv IBES.
Written by the StocksAnalyzer team. Content reviewed and updated as of July 6, 2026.